Protocols
1. I will start by
asking you to pardon my voice. As you can hear, I have a cold as a result of
working hard to meet your deadline!
2. I am delighted to
present the 2020 Federal Budget Proposals to this Joint Session of the National
Assembly, being my first budget presentation to this 9th National Assembly.
3. Before presenting
the Budget, let me thank all of you Distinguished and Honourable Members of the
National Assembly, for your avowed commitment to cooperate with the Executive
to accelerate the pace of our socio-economic development and enhance the
welfare of our people.
4. I will also once
again thank all Nigerians, who have demonstrated confidence in our ability to
deliver on our socio-economic development agenda, by re-electing this
Administration with a mandate to Continue the Change. We remain resolutely
committed to the actualization of our vision of a bright and prosperous future
for all Nigerians.
5. During this
address, I will present highlights of our budget proposals for the next fiscal
year. The Honourable Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning will
provide full details of these proposals, subsequently.
OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 2019
6. The economic environment
remains very challenging, globally. The International Monetary Fund, IMF,
expects global economic recovery to slow down from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.5
percent in 2020. This reflects uncertainties arising from security and trade
tensions with attendant implications on commodity price volatility.
7. Nearer to home,
however, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to continue to grow from 3.1 percent
in 2018 to 3.6 percent in 2020. This is driven by investor confidence, oil
production recovery in key exporting countries, sustained strong agricultural
production as well as public investment in non-dependent economies.
8. Mr. Senate
President; Right Honourable Speaker; I am pleased to report that the Nigerian
economy thus far has recorded nine consecutive quarters of GDP growth. Annual
growth increased from 0.82 percent in 2017 to 1.93 percent in 2018, and 2.02
percent in the first half of 2019. The continuous recovery reflects our
economy’s resilience and gives credence to the effectiveness of our economic policies
thus far.
9. We also succeeded
in significantly reducing inflation from a peak of 18.72 percent in January
2017, to 11.02 percent by August 2019. This was achieved through effective
fiscal and monetary policy coordination, exchange rate stability and sensible
management of our foreign exchange.
10. We have
sustained accretion to our external reserves, which have risen from US$23
billion in October 2016 to about US$42.5 billion by August 2019. The increase
is largely due to favourable prices of crude oil in the international market,
minimal disruption of crude oil production given the stable security situation
in the Niger Delta region and our import substitution drive, especially in key
commodities.
11. The foreign
exchange market has also remained stable due to the effective implementation of
the Central Bank’s interventions to restore liquidity, improve access and
discourage currency speculation. Special windows were created that enabled
small businesses, investors and importers in priority economic sectors to have
timely access to foreign exchange.
12. Furthermore, as
a sign of increased investor confidence in our economy, there were remarkable
inflows of foreign capital in the second quarter of 2019. The total value of
capital imported into Nigeria increased from US$12 billion in the first half
year of 2018 to US$14 billion for the same period in 2019.
PERFORMANCE OF THE 2019 BUDGET
13. Distinguished
and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, you will recall that the 2019
‘Budget of Continuity’ was based on a benchmark oil price of US$60 per barrel,
oil production of 2.3 mbpd, and an exchange rate of N305 to the United States
Dollar. Based on these parameters, we projected a deficit of N1.918 trillion or
1.37 percent of Gross Domestic Product.
14. As at June 2019,
Federal Government’s actual aggregate revenue (excluding Government-Owned
Enterprises) was N2.04 trillion. This revenue performance is only 58 percent of
the 2019 Budget’s target due to the underperformance of both oil and non-oil revenue
sources. Specifically, oil revenues were below target by 49 percent as at June
2019. This reflects the lower-than-projected oil production, deductions for
cost under-recovery on supply of premium motor spirit (PMS), as well as higher
expenditures on pipeline security/maintenance and Frontier exploration.
15. Daily oil
production averaged 1.86 mbpd as at June 2019, as against the estimated 2.3
mbpd that was assumed. This shortfall was partly offset as the market price of
Bonny Light crude oil averaged US$67.20 per barrel which was higher than the
benchmark price of US$60.
16. Additionally,
revenue projections from restructuring of Joint Venture Oil and Gas assets and
enactment of new fiscal terms for Production Sharing Contracts did not
materialize, as the enabling legislation for these reforms is yet to be passed
into law.
17. The performance
of non-oil taxes and independent revenues such as internally generated revenues
were N614.57 billion and N217.84 billion, respectively.
18. Receipts from
Value Added Tax were below expectations due to lower levels of activities in
certain economic sectors, in the aftermath of national elections. Corporate
taxes were affected by the seasonality of collections, which tend to peak in
the second half of the calendar year.
19. On the
expenditure side, 2019 Budget implementation was also hindered by the
combination of delay in its approval and the underperformance of revenue
collections. As such, only recurrent expenditure items have been implemented
substantially. Of the prorated expenditure of N4.46 trillion budgeted, N3.39
trillion had been spent by June 30, 2019.
20. In compliance
with the provisions of the 2018 Appropriation Act, we implemented the 2018
capital budget till June 2019. Capital releases under the 2019 Budget commenced
in the third quarter. As at 30th September 2019, a total of about N294.63
billion had been released for capital projects. I have directed the Ministry of
Finance, Budget and National Planning to release an additional N600 billion of
the 2019 capital budget by the end of the year.
21. Despite the
delay in capital releases, a deficit of N1.35 trillion was recorded at end of
June 2019. This represents 70 percent of the budgeted deficit for the full
year.
22. Despite these
anomalies, I am happy to report that we met our debt service obligations, we
are current on staff salaries and overhead costs have also been largely
covered.
2020 BUDGET PRIORITIES
23. Distinguished
Senators, Honourable Members, let me now turn to the 2020 Appropriation, which
is designed to be a budget of:
a. Fiscal
consolidation, to strengthen our macroeconomic environment;
b. Investing in
critical infrastructure, human capital development and enabling institutions,
especially in key job creating sectors;
c. Incentivising
private sector investment essential to complement the Government’s development
plans, policies and programmes; and
d. Enhancing our
social investment programs to further deepen their impact on those marginalised
and most vulnerable Nigerians.
PARAMETERS & FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPINNING THE
APPROPRIATION BILL AND THE FINANCE BILL
24. Distinguished
and Honourable Members of the National Assembly, the 2020-2022 Medium Term
Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) set out the
parameters for the 2020 Budget. We have adopted a conservative oil price
benchmark of US$57 per barrel, daily oil production estimate of 2.18 mbpd and
an exchange rate of N305 per US Dollar for 2020.
25. We expect enhanced
real GDP growth of 2.93% in 2020, driven largely by non-oil output, as economic
diversification accelerates, and the enabling business environment improves.
However, inflation is expected to remain slightly above single digits in 2020.
26. Accompanying the
2020 Budget Proposal is a Finance Bill for your kind consideration and passage
into law. This Finance Bill has five strategic objectives, in terms of
achieving incremental, but necessary, changes to our fiscal laws. These
objectives are:
a. Promoting fiscal
equity by mitigating instances of regressive taxation;
b. Reforming
domestic tax laws to align with global best practices;
c. Introducing tax
incentives for investments in infrastructure and capital markets;
d. Supporting Micro,
Small and Medium-sized businesses in line with our Ease of Doing Business
Reforms; and
e. Raising Revenues
for Government.
27. The draft
Finance Bill proposes an increase of the VAT rate from 5% to 7.5%. As such, the
2020 Appropriation Bill is based on this new VAT rate. The additional revenues
will be used to fund health, education and infrastructure programmes. As the
States and Local Governments are allocated 85% of all VAT revenues, we expect
to see greater quality and efficiency in their spending in these areas as well.
28. The VAT Act
already exempts pharmaceuticals, educational items, and basic commodities,
which exemptions we are expanding under the Finance Bill, 2019. Specifically,
Section 46 of the Finance Bill, 2019 expands the exempt items to include the
following:
a. Brown and white
bread;
b. Cereals including
maize, rice, wheat, millet, barley and sorghum;
c. Fish of all
kinds;
d. Flour and starch
meals;
e. Fruits, nuts,
pulses and vegetables of various kinds;
f. Roots such as
yam, cocoyam, sweet and Irish potatoes;
g. Meat and poultry
products including eggs;
h. Milk;
i. Salt and herbs of
various kinds; and
j. Natural water and
table water.
29. Additionally,
our proposals also raise the threshold for VAT registration to N25 million in
turnover per annum, such that the revenue authorities can focus their
compliance efforts on larger businesses thereby bringing relief for our Micro,
Small and Medium-sized businesses.
30. It is absolutely
essential to intensify our revenue generation efforts. That said, this
Administration remains committed to ensuring that the inconvenience associated
with any fiscal policy adjustments, is moderated, such that the poor and the
vulnerable, who are most at risk, do not bear the brunt of these reforms.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE ESTIMATES
31. The sum of
N8.155 trillion is estimated as the total Federal Government revenue in 2020
and comprises oil revenue N2.64 trillion, non-oil tax revenues of N1.81
trillion and other revenues of N3.7 trillion. This is 7 percent higher than the
2019 comparative estimate of N7.594 trillion inclusive of the Government Owned
Enterprises.
32. The increasing
share of non-oil revenues underscores our confidence in our revenue
diversification strategies, going forward. Furthermore, in our efforts to
enhance transparency and accountability, we shall continue our strict
implementation of Treasury Single Account (TSA) to capture the domiciliary
accounts in our foreign missions and those linked to Government Owned
Enterprises.
PLANNED 2020 EXPENDITURE
33. An aggregate
expenditure of N10.33 trillion is proposed for the Federal Government in 2020.
The expenditure estimate includes statutory transfers of N556.7 billion,
non-debt recurrent expenditure of N4.88 trillion and N2.14 trillion of capital
expenditure (excluding the capital component of statutory transfers). Debt
service is estimated at N2.45 trillion, and provision for Sinking Fund to
retire maturing bonds issued to local contractors is N296 billion.
STATUTORY TRANSFERS
34. The sum of N556.7 billion is provided for Statutory Transfers in the 2020
Budget and includes:
a. N125 billion for
the National Assembly;
b. N110 billion for
the Judiciary;
c. N37.83 billion
for the North East Development Commission (NEDC);
d. N44.5 billion for
the Basic Health Care Provision Fund (BHCPF);
e. N111.79 billion
for the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC); and
f. N80.88 billion
for the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), which is now supervised by
the Ministry of Niger Delta Affairs.
35. We have
increased the budgetary allocation to the National Human Rights Commission from
N1.5 billion to N2.5 billion. This 67 percent increase in funding is done to
enable the Commission to perform its functions more effectively.
RECURRENT EXPENDITURE
36. The non-debt
recurrent expenditure includes N3.6 trillion for personnel and pension costs,
an increase of N620.28 billion over 2019. This increase reflects the new
minimum wage as well as our proposals to improve remuneration and welfare of
our Police and Armed Forces. You will all agree that Good Governance, Inclusive
Growth and Collective Prosperity can only be sustained in an environment of
peace and security.
37. Our fiscal
reforms shall introduce new performance management frameworks to regulate the
cost to revenue ratios for Government Owned Enterprises, which shall come under
significant scrutiny. We will reward exceptional revenue and cost management
performance, while severe consequences will attend failures to achieve agreed
revenue targets.
38. We shall also
sustain our efforts in managing personnel costs. Accordingly, I have directed
the stoppage of the salary of any Federal Government staff that is not captured
on the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS) platform by
the end of October 2019. All agencies must obtain the necessary approvals
before embarking on any fresh recruitment and any contraventions of these
directives shall attract severe sanctions.
39. Overhead costs
are projected at N426.6 billion in 2020. Additional provisions were made only
for the newly created Ministries. I am confident that the benefits of these new
Ministries as it relates to efficient and effective service delivery to our
citizens significantly outweighs their budgeted costs.
40. That said, the
respective Heads of MDAs must ensure strict adherence to government regulations
regarding expenditure control measures. The proliferation of Zonal, State and
Liaison Offices by Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (‘MDAs’), with
attendant avoidable increase in public expenditure, will no longer be
tolerated.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
41. As I mentioned
earlier, investing in critical infrastructure is a key component of our fiscal
strategy under the 2020 Budget Proposals. Accordingly, an aggregate sum of
N2.46 trillion (inclusive of N318.06 billion in statutory transfers) is
proposed for capital projects in 2020.
.
42. Although the
2020 capital budget is N721.33 billion (or 23 percent) lower than the 2019
budget provision of N3.18 trillion, it is still higher than the actual and
projected capital expenditure outturns for both the 2018 and 2019 fiscal years,
respectively. However, at 24 percent of aggregate projected expenditure, the
2020 provision falls significantly short of the 30 percent target in the
Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017-2020.
43. The main
emphasis will be the completion of as many ongoing projects as possible, rather
than commencing new ones. MDAs have not been allowed to admit new projects into
their capital budget for 2020, unless adequate provision has been made for the
completion of ALL ongoing projects.
44. Accordingly, we
have rolled over capital projects that are not likely to be fully funded by the
end of 2019 into the 2020 Budget. We are aware that the National Assembly
shares our view that these projects should be prioritised and given adequate
funding in the 2020 Appropriation Act.
45. Therefore, I
will once again commend the 9th National Assembly’s firm commitment to stop the
unnecessary cycle of delayed annual budgets. I am confident that with our
renewed partnership, the deliberations on the 2020 Budget shall be completed
before the end of 2019 so that the Appropriation Act will come into effect by
the 1st of January.
46. Some of the key
capital spending allocations in the 2020 Budget include:
a. Works and
Housing: N262 billion;
b. Power: N127
billion;
c. Transportation:
N123 billion;
d. Universal Basic
Education Commission: N112 billion;
e. Defence: N100
billion;
f. Zonal
Intervention Projects: N100 billion;
g. Agriculture and
Rural Development: N83 billion;
h. Water Resources:
N82 billion;
i. Niger Delta
Development Commission: N81 billion;
j. Education: N48
billion;
k. Health: N46
billion;
l. Industry, Trade
and Investment: N40 billion;
m. North East
Development Commission: N38 billion;
n. Interior: N35
billion;
o. Social Investment
Programmes: N30 billion;
p. Federal Capital
Territory: N28 billion; and
q. Niger Delta
Affairs Ministry: N24 billion.
47. Although
Government’s actual spending has reduced, our plans to leverage private sector
funding through our tax credit schemes will ensure our capital programmes are
sustained.
48. For example, we
launched the Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme, pursuant to which I have
approved the construction and rehabilitation of 19 Nigerian roads and bridges
of 794.4km across 11 States. Indeed, the Scheme has attracted private
investment of over N205 billion and the first set of tax credits are being
processed by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning.
49. As I mentioned
during my Independence Day Speech, under the Presidential Power Initiative, we
will modernise the National Grid in 3 phases; starting from 5 Gigawatts to 7
Gigawatts, then to 11 Gigawatts by 2023, and finally 25 Gigawatts afterwards in
collaboration with the German Government and Siemens.
BUDGET DEFICIT
50. Budget deficit
is projected to be N2.18 trillion in 2020. This includes drawdowns on
project-tied loans and the related capital expenditure.
51. This represents
1.52 percent of estimated GDP, well below the 3 percent threshold set by the
Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007, and in line with the ERGP target of 1.96
percent.
52. The deficit will
be financed by new foreign and domestic borrowings, Privatization Proceeds,
signature bonuses and drawdowns on the loans secured for specific development
projects.
DEBT SERVICE
53. Nigeria remains
committed to meeting its debt service obligations. Accordingly, we provided the
sum of N2.45 trillion for debt service. Of this amount, 71 percent is to
service domestic debt which accounts for about 68 percent of the total debt.
The sum of N296 billion is provided for the Sinking Fund to retire maturing
bonds issued to local contractors.
54. I am confident
that our aggressive and re-energised revenue drive will maintain debt-revenue
ratio at acceptable and manageable levels. We will also continue to be
innovative in our borrowings by using instruments such as Sukuk, Green Bonds
and Diaspora Bonds.
SOCIAL INVESTMENT PROGRAMME
55. Our government
remains committed to ensuring the equitable sharing of economic prosperity. Our
focus on inclusive growth and shared prosperity underscores our keen interest
in catering for the poor and most vulnerable. Accordingly, we are revamping and
improving the implementation of the National Social Investment Programme
through the newly created Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management
and Social Development.
56. The National
Social Investment Programme is already creating jobs and economic opportunity
for local farmers and cooks, providing funding to artisans, traders, youths,
and supporting small businesses with business education and mentoring.
57. The provision of
N65 billion for the Presidential Amnesty Programme has been retained in the
2020 Budget. Furthermore, to fast track the rebuilding efforts in the North
East region, a provision of N37.83 billion has been made for the North East
Development Commission.
OTHER STRATEGIC PRIORITIES IN 2020
58. The 2020 Budget
is expected to accelerate the pace of our economic recovery, promote economic
diversification, enhance competitiveness and ensure social inclusion. We are
optimistic of attaining higher and more inclusive GDP growth in order to
achieve our objective of massive job creation and lifting many of our citizens
out of poverty.
59. The efficiency
of port operations will also be enhanced by implementing a single customs
window, speeding up vessel and cargo handling and issuing more licenses to
build modern terminals in existing ports, especially outside Lagos.
60. Furthermore,
completing the reforms to the governance and fiscal terms of the Petroleum
Industry will provide certainty and attract further investments into the
sector. A consequence of this will be increase in jobs and in government’s take.
I therefore seek your support in passing into law two Petroleum Industry
Executive Bills I will be forwarding to you shortly.
61. In addition, we
need to quickly review the fiscal terms for deep offshore oil fields to reflect
the current realities and for more revenue to accrue to the government. The
Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contract (Amendment) Bill
2018, was submitted to the 8th National Assembly in June 2018 but was
unfortunately not passed into law.
62. I will be
re-forwarding the Bill to this Assembly very shortly and therefore urge you to
pass it. We estimate that this effort can generate at least 500 million US
dollars additional revenue for the Federal Government in 2020, and over one
billion dollars from 2021.
63. Whilst the
Budget is our principal fiscal tool to achieve these socio-economic development
targets, we remain committed to prudently planning for our future economic
prosperity. In this regard, I have directed the reconstituted Ministry of
Finance, Budget and National Planning to commence preparations towards the
development of successor medium – and long-term economic development plans,
particularly as the Nigeria Vision 20-2020 and the ERGP expire next year.
CONCLUSION
64. Mr. Senate
President, Mr. Speaker, Distinguished and Honourable Members of the National
Assembly, this speech would be incomplete without, once again, commending the
patriotic resolve of the 9th National Assembly to collaborate with the
Executive in the effort to deliver inclusive growth and enhance the welfare our
people. I assure you of the strong commitment of the Executive to deepen the
relationship with the National Assembly.
65. As you review
the 2020-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy
Paper (FSP), as well as the 2020 Budget estimates, we believe that the
legislative process will be quick, so as to restore the country to the
January-December financial year.
66. It is with great
pleasure therefore, that I lay before this Distinguished Joint Session of the
National Assembly, the 2020 Budget Proposals of the Federal Government of
Nigeria.
67. I thank you most
sincerely for your attention.
68. May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
* Being the full text of the 2020 Budget Speech delivered by President Muhammadu Buhari at the Joint Session of the National Assembly, Abuja Tuesday, October 8, 2019